Israel Adesanya does not like the matchup for Conor McGregor if the UFC 329 rematch gets past the early danger window.
McGregor returns Saturday night in Las Vegas against Max Holloway, 13 years after beating Holloway by decision in their first meeting. Adesanya broke down the rematch on his YouTube channel and picked Holloway, pointing first to the time McGregor has spent away from active MMA competition.
“Five years is a long time,” Adesanya said. “Max has been active over the past five years. He’s done numbers.”
Watch Adesanya’s full UFC 329 breakdown below:
Adesanya Sees A Sharp Holloway And A Bad Night For McGregor
Adesanya said Holloway’s current version is too sharp and too active for McGregor if the Irish star does not make something happen early.
“Max is just too sharp right now, he’s too active. This kind of Max that Conor has to face, it’s gonna be bad,” Adesanya said.
The former middleweight champion did not completely dismiss McGregor’s chance. He said Holloway’s main danger is the opening round, when McGregor is most likely to be fresh, explosive, and hunting for the same clean shots that worked in their first fight.
“All I think Max has to watch out for is the first round, to be honest,” Adesanya said.
Adesanya focused heavily on stance and leg attacks. If McGregor comes back with a boxing-heavy base and a front leg that sits too heavy, he thinks Holloway can make him pay.
“If Conor comes in with that boxing stance, it’s gonna be a problem because his leg is gonna get eaten up,” Adesanya said.
That fits the broader UFC 329 theme. McGregor has promised violence and said Holloway wants a trilogy “for cash” before predicting Holloway’s retirement. Holloway has pushed the idea of pace and deep water, and Adesanya is leaning into the same read.
Adesanya Picks Holloway To Finish Late
Adesanya said Holloway should be measured early, then begin to take over once McGregor’s first-round danger fades.
“The first round, Max should fight smart, defensive and countering… I think Max is gonna beat him. Max is gonna take him into deep water, and it’s not as deep as usual, like round two onwards,” Adesanya said.
His harshest prediction came when he described what happens if McGregor survives past the early part of the fight.
“If (McGregor) survives that, when he’s in the deeper water, he’s gonna drown,” Adesanya said.
Adesanya also pointed to Holloway’s schedule since McGregor last fought. McGregor’s last UFC appearance came in 2021, while Holloway has remained active against elite competition. Adesanya counted eight Holloway fights in that span and said that stands out because some improvements only happen under live fire.
“He’s leveled up as a fighter because there’s certain things you only level up from fighting, from being in there, from combat,” Adesanya said.
By the end of the breakdown, Adesanya still left room for McGregor’s unpredictability. He noted McGregor can win because this is MMA, but his official pick stayed on Holloway.
“Max Holloway by finish in the later rounds,” Adesanya said. “That’s my prediction.”
The prediction lands in the middle of a packed UFC 329 conversation. Dana White has said he already has five scenarios in mind if McGregor beats Holloway, while Holloway has talked about using the rematch to make his records harder for future contenders to chase.
Adesanya’s read is simple: McGregor can be dangerous early, but if Holloway gets through that window, the fight starts moving toward him.
