Alexander Volkanovski sees the danger for Justin Gaethje at UFC Freedom 250, and the former opponent who has actually felt Ilia Topuria’s timing still believes the undefeated champion finds the kill shot.
Volkanovski broke down Ilia Topuria’s fight with Justin Gaethje on his YouTube channel and picked Topuria to win by knockout. He did not treat Gaethje like a crash-test dummy, either. Volk gave “The Highlight” a real tactical lane through pressure, shell defense, leg kicks, and patience. Once Gaethje opens up, Topuria’s countering becomes the nightmare.
“Justin Gaethje, White House, main event. Huge fight,” Volkanovski said. “Ilia obviously looking like the favorite. The pros are saying this could be a very, very, very bad night for Justin Gaethje. But let’s break it down a little bit further.”
Watch Volkanovski’s full breakdown below:
Volkanovski said Gaethje is often viewed as pure offense because of his reputation for bangers. Gaethje is aggressive, yes, but Volk pointed out that he still shells up, picks defensive positions, and does not always chase chaos without a guard.
“Justin Gaethje obviously a durable, aggressive fighter and still quite calculated,” Volkanovski said. “A lot of people see him being so aggressive and think he’s just going to be so open for Ilia. Charles is more aggressive than Justin Gaethje.”
That difference matters because Topuria has been lethal when opponents pressure without protecting the exits. Gaethje’s best chance, according to Volkanovski, may be to pressure Topuria without giving him clean counters down the middle.
“Justin Gaethje has a lot of offense, very aggressive, but he will still try and put himself in defensive positions,” Volkanovski said. “He will shell up. You’ll see him sometimes get into a big shell, which I think I’ve seen some people bring up and be like, ‘This is a big problem.’ It can be a big problem.”
Volkanovski added that Gaethje’s shell could buy him time if he stays disciplined, especially because Topuria is at his most dangerous when someone fires recklessly and leaves the chin available.
“For Ilia, Ilia is going to be a big problem if you are trying to pressure, fire shots and leaving your chin out there for him to just counter and put one on you,” Volkanovski said. “One false move can really put your lights out.”
Volkanovski Says Topuria’s Cage-Cutting And Mid-Combo Adjustments Are The Real Problem
Volkanovski knows this part better than anyone in this matchup discussion. Topuria does not just walk forward and swing. He backs fighters toward the fence, takes away space, and forces them to pick a side while he is already lining up the next punch.
“Ilia likes to back you up, pressure you, put you in a position closer to the cage,” Volkanovski said. “He likes to get you, you know, inside that black line, close to the cage, obviously to take away your backward movement. You no longer have anywhere to go.”
Volkanovski referenced his own knockout loss to Topuria at UFC 298 and explained why the finishing sequence was more layered than a basic one-two. He said Topuria had previously noted that the danger came later in the combination.
“Ilia talked about, you know, wasn’t the ones and twos that he was going to get me with,” Volkanovski said. “It was the three, fours, and fives is where he got me. When he brang that up, he was right. The ones and twos weren’t really there, but the three, fours, fives in that combo were.”
Volkanovski said he was trying to move laterally outside Topuria’s right hand, but Topuria adjusted during the combination instead of punching at empty air.
“He did a great job of mid-combo shuffling laterally to get his base and then just ends up catching me,” Volkanovski said. “I end up countering. We both stand in front of each other. We both fire. I end up copping the shot.”
Gaethje still has the durability, wrestling background, leg kicks, and experience to make things uncomfortable, and he has already promised to make this a dog fight against Topuria. Volkanovski still sees Topuria’s timing and angle changes as the cleaner weapons if Gaethje gives him an opening.
Volkanovski also studied Topuria’s knockout of Charles Oliveira and said the setup showed the same kind of trap. Topuria jabbed, pulled Oliveira forward, moved off the center line, and sat him down with the right hand before the follow-up landed.
“Great setup,” Volkanovski said. “Jabbed that in, pulled him, sat straight into the right hand. That was all she wrote.” Volkanovski added that the follow-up hook was not needed because Oliveira was already out.
Volkanovski believes Topuria could use a similar idea if Gaethje shells up, waits for the exchange to end, and then tries to chase.
“Is this the type of stuff he’s going to need with Gaethje?” Volkanovski said. “Jab, pull himself out, thinking that all the combo is done. Gaethje is going to be like, ‘I’m going to chase him. He’s finished his combo. This is my opportunity,’ and then counter.”
The official fight announcement also gave fans a clean look at the White House main event pairing:
The main event of the WHITE HOUSE CARD has been confirmed!
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje headlines the Freedom 250 card! #UFC326 | LIVE on TNT Sports & discovery+ pic.twitter.com/SD7yhcQEtV
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) March 8, 2026
Volkanovski did not dismiss Gaethje’s route. He said Gaethje can shell, kick, stay defensive, and possibly drag Topuria into later rounds if he refuses to overcommit. Gaethje has made a career out of turning technical ideas into bloody math problems, and he still has enough danger to punish anyone who gets lazy.
Volkanovski’s issue is what happens when Gaethje eventually decides he has to throw with real intent.
“As soon as he tries to open up and let his hands go, take the opportunity, I just believe Ilia is going to be too sharp and just catch him,” Volkanovski said. “I think he’s safe enough and defensive enough to not fall into any of Justin Gaethje’s traps, and then as soon as Gaethje opens up, game over.”
Volkanovski made the pick official from there.
“I think it’s going to be a KO for Ilia,” Volkanovski said. “You can see he’s going to be the favorite. He is the favorite for a reason. I think he’s just going to be too much and he’s going to get the KO victory.”
He also gave a round range.
“My pick is going to be Ilia knockout in them first couple, maybe three rounds,” Volkanovski said. “That’s my prediction for the main event of the White House card.”
Gaethje is still the kind of fighter who can ruin a clean prediction with one leg kick, one right hand, or one round of pure stubborn violence. But with Arman Tsarukyan waiting as the UFC Freedom 250 backup, Volkanovski sees the main event turning on Gaethje’s discipline. He has to stay dangerous without giving Topuria the exact opening he wants.
